Do Humans Need GMOs? -- A View from a Global Trade = Market

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Do Humans Need GMOs? -- A View from a Global = Trade=20 Market

Journal of American Academy of Business, Cambridge, Vol. 8 = (1), 147=20
By Chi-Chung Chen and Wei-Chun Tseng (National Chung-Hsing = University,=20 Taichung, Taiwan)

Abstract: As the population of the world continues to = increase,=20 it will be accompanied by an increase in the demand for food. = Since the=20 total acreage planted is no longer increasing, unless new = production=20 technology is adopted, such an increase in demand that is = unmatched by an=20 increase in supply in the world food market will raise food prices = and=20 lead to food shortages, especially in underdeveloped countries. =

In this study, a spatial equilibrium (SE) model is applied to = create a=20 world trade model. The products simulated in this study are corn = and=20 soybeans since they are the major food grains and also the most = widely=20 adopted GMO products in the world. The empirical results reveal = evidence=20 of the adoption of GMO production technology increase the quantity = traded=20 and lessen the upward pressure on food prices, although it is the = major=20 trading countries that obtain most of the benefit.

Introduction: Malthus predicted that the population would grow = at a=20 faster rate than the food supply. His prediction, however, did not = prove=20 true. Thanks to the green revolution in agriculture, the = production of=20 food per capita on average rose by nearly 0.5 percent per year = from 1961=20 to 1999 and this caused the real prices of agricultural food = ingredients=20 to fall by nearly 2 percent per year over that same period.

However, recent statistics show that the acreage planted on a = global=20 basis is no longer increasing due to development and climate = change. If no=20 new production technologies are developed and adopted, the food = supply=20 curve will no longer shift. Furthermore, as the world's population = continues to grow, this will cause the demand for food to = increase. Such=20 an increase in demand that is not matched by a corresponding = increase in=20 supply in the market for food will lead to an increase in world = food=20 prices.

The purpose of this paper is to answer the question: "Do humans = need=20 genetically modified organisms (GMOs)?" To this end, a spatial = equilibrium=20 (SE) model is adopted to create a world trade model. The products = to be=20 simulated are corn and soybeans since they are the GMOs that have = been=20 most widely adopted in the world. section 2 of this paper reviews = the=20 demand for and supply of food from a global market perspective, = while=20 section 3 seeks to interpret the international trade theory. The = world=20 trade model for com and soybeans is presented in section 4. The = simulation=20 results both with and without the adoption ofN GMO corn and = soybeans=20 production technology are displayed in section 5. The final = section=20 concludes.

Current Status and Debates on Transgenic Crops

The benefits to be derived from adopting GMO technology in = agricultural=20 production include the following: high-yield and quality, savings = in=20 spraying costs, a reduction in labor, and reduced environmental = impacts=20 (Sparling, et al., 1999). For example, Just and Hueth (1993) show = that=20 nonchemical companies tend to develop biotechnology substitutes = for=20 chemicals, which benefit the environment. Qaim (1999) illustrates = the=20 increased production and cost savings in relation to = disease-resistant=20 potatoes in the MeNxican potato sector, and Falck-Zepeda, et al. = (2000)=20 show the high surpluses resulting from Bt cotton and = herbicide-tolerant=20 soybeans. To sum up, GMO technology increases production, reduces = costs=20 and lowers prices.

GMO technology benefits many crops. Figures provided by the=20 International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech = Applications=20 (ISAAA) depict the shares of the four principal GM crops. At the = global=20 level, in 2003, GM soybeans occupied 41.4 million hectares (61% of = the=20 global GM area), GM corn was planted on 15.5 million hectares (23% = of the=20 global GM area), transgenic cotton was grown on 7.2 million = hectares (11%=20 of the global GM area), and GM canola occupied 3.6 million = hectares (5% of=20 the global GM Narea) (James, 2003).

Health risks, on the other hand, are the most widely-disputed = area in=20 the current GMO controversy. GMO opponents worry that different = protein=20 levels in GMO products may have prolonged impacts on health = (Sparling, et=20 al., 1999). Thus studies of consumers' risk perceptions, = information, and=20 decisions regarding buying GMO products are increasing in the = literature=20 (Sheehy, et al., 1998; Wohl, 1998). The needs of some consumers = for=20 GMO-free products leads to non-GMO labeling issues (Caswell, 2000; = Paarlberg, 20N02).

People in EU countries are more concerned about the health = risks=20 associated with GMOs. These differences between the risk = perceptions of=20 consumers in the EU and those in the U.S. and Japan lead to = disagreements=20 in relation to the trading of GMO products. This in turn might = lead to=20 different attitudes in terms of how countries handle their = nontariff=20 barriers as reflected, for example, in the Sanitary and = Phytosanitary=20 (SPS) Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This = phenomenon=20 even threatens the Nintegrity of the World Trade Organization = (Ames,=20 2000). The new EU regulation calling for strict labeling and = tractability=20 on all GM products will further discourage the planting of GM = crops in=20 poor countries (Paarlberg, 2002).

Nevertheless, the share of transgenic crops is already large = and is=20 still growing fast. According to the ISAAA report, in 2003, the = estimated=20 global area for GM crops in 2003 was 67.7 million hectares, = representing a=20 15% increase over the previous year, and a 40-fold increase since = 1996.=20 Six countries, namely, the U.S., Argentina, Canada, Brazil, China = and=20 South Africa accounted for 99% of the global transgenic crop area. = Close=20 to one-third (30%) of this global transgenic crop area was located = in=20 developinNg countries. The global market value of GM crops is = estimated to=20 be between $4.50 and $4.75 billion (James, 2003).

Research and development plays an important role in the GMO = industry.=20 Falck-Zepeda, et. al. (2000b) show that the gene developer of the = Bt=20 cotton, Monsanto, accounted for 21% of the world surplus of Bt = cotton. To=20 motivate firms to engage in R&D, patents have become = particularly=20 important (Foltz, et. al., 2000).

Demand and Supply in the Global Market

As stated earlier, Malthus's theory that the growth of = population will=20 be more rapid than that of the food supply has been disproved by = data for=20 the last 50 years. As shown in Figure 1, the global food = production growth=20 rate exceeded the global population growth rate from 1961 to 2000. = There=20 are basically two reasons why the supply of food has exceeded the = demand=20 for it. The first is that the major crop production technology has = improved over the last fifty years and, therefore, the crop yield = per acre=20 hasN increased. Such increases in crop yields have been due to the = green=20 revolution. The second is that the acreage under cultivation has=20 increased. Figure 2 shows that, on a global basis, the acreage = planted=20 increased from 1961 to 1995 and then declined slightly after = 1995.

According to U.N. statistics and forecasts, the population of = the world=20 in 2000 was around 6.18 billion, but is expected to become 8.15 = billion in=20 2025 (representing a 31.84% increase in just 25 years). Such = population=20 growth will of course result in an increase in the demand for = food.=20 However, the global acreage under cultivation is no longer = increasing=20 because of global climate change or for environmental reasons, and = so the=20 only way to increase the food supply is to increase crop yields. = Since=20 large quaNntities of pesticides and fertilizers have been applied = on farm=20 fields, high crop yields have resulted, but the chemicals have = also=20 negatively impacted the environment by, for instance, polluting = the=20 groundwater. It is therefore inappropriate to extensively apply = these=20 chemical inputs to the crop production process. GMO production = technology=20 may therefore be one way of increasing crop yields and food = supply. In=20 such circumstances, food prices will not need to be raised.

In terms of the recent developments in the use of GMOs, the = confidence=20 of consumers has still not caught up with the advances in = production=20 technology. The protests voiced against the adoption of GMO = production=20 technology are centered around two separate issues: human health = and the=20 environmental impact. Many developed countries, such as those of = Europe=20 and Japan, have strict regulations with regard to GMO products as = well as=20 certain other products involving related processes, since = uncertainty in=20 relationN to human health exists once people consume GMO products. = The=20 other reason is that the production of GMOs may affect the = environment by,=20 for instance, damaging the ecological system. However, such issues = may be=20 ignored by developing countries from the standpoint of food = security. The=20 ratio of expenditure on food to GNP in most developing or = under-developed=20 countries is at least fifty percent. If the food price is = increased by=20 10%, it may result in a food crisis in such countries. However, = such=20 increases maNy not have much of an impact on developed countries = since the=20 ratio of their expenditure on food to their GNP is much smaller = (below=20 2%). This is why the regulations and the extent to which the = consumers=20 accept them differ between the developed and developing = countries.

Theoretical Graphics

In Neoclassical trade theory, the excess demand and supply = functions=20 are derived from the domestic demand and supply functions so that = they can=20 be linked with the world market. When a shock either in relation = to=20 domestic demand or supply occurs, for instance when the GMO = production=20 technology is adopted, the supply curve will then shift to the = right and a=20 new equilibrium will be reached. Let us suppose that D^sub x^ and = S^sub=20 x0^ are the domestic demand and supply curves for an exporting = country,=20 while Dm Nand Sn, are the domestic demand and supply curves for an = importing country, as shown in Figure 3. Excess demand and supply = curves=20 in the world market may then be derived from the demand and supply = curves=20 in the exporting and importing countries. When there is no = government=20 intervention and a perfectly competitive market is assumed, the=20 equilibrium price will be P^sub w0^ while the volume of trade will = be=20 OT^sub 0^. If there is a supply shock in the exporting country, = for=20 instance when a new production technology is adopted, the supply = curve=20 will shift to S^sub x1^, which will give rise to a new excess = supply curve=20 ES^sub 1^. Therefore, the world price will fall to P^sub w1^ and = the=20 volume of trade will increase to OT^sub 1^. The gains in welfare = as a=20 result of the trade surplus both for the exporter and the importer = are=20 represented by the areas A and B, respectively. This implies that = a=20 trading country may benefit from trade even though the new = production=20 technology may be adopted in a foreign country.

On the other hand, the demand for food will increase over the = next 20=20 years due to population growth, and, therefore, the world prices = will=20 increase if the supply does not change. However, as mentioned = before, the=20 adoption of new production technologies involving GMO products = could=20 alleviate such pressure on prices.

Spatial Equilibrium Model and Validation

The first term of the objective function is the area under the = demand=20 curve minus the area under the supply curve, which represents the = social=20 welfare for trading country i, while the second term relates to = the=20 transportation cost. The objective function is defined as a = "quasi-welfare=20 function" (Takayama and Judge). The first constraint shows that = the total=20 demand in importing country i cannot exceed the supply that is = imported,=20 which indicates that the demand and supply balance. Similarly, the = second=20 constraint shows that exporting country i cannot export more than = it is=20 able to supply. According to the first-order condition (or the = Kuhn-Tucker=20 condition), the import price will be the export price plus the=20 transportation cost if trading activity takes place. Such an = equilibrium=20 implies that thNe market is perfectly competitive and that prices = are=20 endogenous variables.

The base year data used in the model are 1995 data. The reason = why data=20 for the year 1995 are applied here is that not a great quantity of = GMO=20 corn and soybeans were cultivated at that time. Therefore, the = solution to=20 the base year could represent the economic situation before the = adoption=20 of GMO production technology. When the GMO production technology = is=20 adopted, it will lead to a shift in the supply curve and the = impact can be=20 determined by simulating the model. To reduce the number of = demand,=20 supply, and trade variables in the empirical model, the trading = countries=20 shown in Appendix A are aggregated into regions. However, some of = the=20 major exporting and importing countries, such as the U.S., = Argentina,=20 Japan, and the EU-12 are not aggregated because of their larger = market=20 shares. The quantities and prices in relation to the production = and=20 consumption of each trading country are obtained from the FAO, = USDA, the=20 American Corn Grower Association (ACGA), and the International = Service for=20 the Acquisition of Agri-botech Applications. Population statistics = are=20 obtained from the United Nations, while the transportation costs = are=20 derived from Muller. Before simulating the adoption of GMO = production=20 technology in relation to corn and soybeans, the model has first = to be=20 evaluated. Tables 1 and 2 present the observed data and the = solutions to=20 the model in regard to both the quantities demanded and supplied. = The=20 deviations between the solutions and the observed data are also=20 calculated. Table 1 shows that the deviatiNons for the four corn = exporting=20 regions in terms of the quantities both demanded and supplied are = below=20 6%. A similar situation also occurs with regard to the importers. = The=20 total deviations for both the exporters and importers in relation = to corn=20 as shown in Table 1 are below 1%. Similarly, the total deviations = in=20 relation to soybeans in Table 2 are below 5%. Such small = deviations=20 indicate that the model passes the evaluation.

Simulation Results

Four scenarios are simulated here. The first scenario is = referred to as=20 BASE and indicates that the GMO production technology is not = adopted,=20 while the second scenario (TECH) represents the adoption of the = GMO=20 production technology in the exporting countries. The third = scenario=20 (POPUL2025) represents the shift in the demand curve due to the = growth in=20 population. The fourth scenario (TECH2025) refers to the adoption = of the=20 GMO production technology in the year 2025. The definition of each = scenario is summarized as follows:

BASE: base.

TECH: adoption of the GMO production technology.

POPU2025: shift in demand due to the growth in the = population.

TECH2025: shift in demand with the adoption of the GMO = production=20 technology.

When the GMO production technologies in relation to corn and = soybeans=20 are adopted, either the crop yield or the costs of production will = change.=20 The magnitude of the GMO production technology is obtained from = Tweeten.=20 As corn production is adopted by the GMO production technology (Bt = com),=20 it will result in a 3.2% increase in the corn yield. If the = soybean=20 production is adopted by the GMO production technology (GR = Soybeans),=20 production costs will decline by $3.2 per hectare.

The economic impacts arising from the adoption of GMO = production=20 technology on the respective markets for corn are listed in Table = 3. Table=20 3 shows that if all exporting countries adopt the GMO production=20 technology in relation to corn, then production, consumption, = trade, and=20 the value of welfare will all increase. The increase in the = percentage for=20 each trading region represents the increase in the proportion of = its=20 marketing share. For instance, the U.S. accounts for 83% of the = marketing=20 share in the inNternational corn trade market and will thus get = the=20 benefit of 81% of the overall increase in welfare as a result of = the=20 adoption of GMO production technology in relation to corn. Such = results=20 imply that larger trading countries will reap the most benefits = from the=20 adoption of a new production technology in an open market = system.

Table 3 also shows that the percentage increases in the = quantities=20 produced and consumed in relation to these four exporting = countries lie=20 between 2.17% and 0.55%, while the percentage changes in welfare = range=20 from around 0.09% to 0.14%. However, the percentage change in the = quantity=20 traded varies and ranges from 3.26% to 44.79%. The overall impacts = on the=20 quantity traded and on welfare due to the GMO production = technology in=20 relation to corn are 5.53% and 0.12%, respectively. Similarly, = importing=20 countrieNs also benefit from a lower import price as the corn = production=20 is affected by the adoption of GMO production technology. = Generally=20 speaking, major importing counties will experience a 0.54% = increase in=20 consumption while their welfare increases from 0.10% to 0.15%. = However,=20 production in the importing regions will be reduced and the = reduction in=20 percentage terms in the major importing countries will range from = around=20 0.85% to 0.93%.

The economic impacts as a result of the adoption of GMO = production=20 technology in relation to soybeans are presented in Table 4. The = results=20 in Table 4 are similar to those in Table 3 but the scale of the = impacts in=20 Table 4 is greater than that in Table 3. The overall impact of the = adoption of GMO production technology in relation to soybeans will = result=20 in a 2.22% increase in the quantity traded, and 0.40% and 0.31% = increases=20 in the welfare of exporters and importers, respectively.

The GMO Technology Can Lesson the Upward Pressure on Food=20 Prices

From the above discussion we can learn that the food supply = will not=20 change if the acreage cultivated as well as the crop yields remain = the=20 same. However, the food demand curve for the world as a whole will = shift=20 to the right if the population continues to grow. According to = U.N.=20 forecasts, the world population in 2025 will be 1.31 times that = for the=20 year 2000 (see Appendix B). Without income effects and without any = change=20 in the per capita demand for food, the demand for food in the = world=20 according to the Popu2025 scenario will result in the Base year = demand=20 being increased by 31%. Therefore, the simulation results based on = the=20 Popu2025 scenario indicate that the world export and import prices = for=20 corn in the year 2025 will increase by about 320.6% and 277.1%,=20 respectively (Table 5), due to the small demand elasticity. = Similarly, the=20 world export and import prices for soybeans will rise by about = 37.5% and=20 35.5%, respectively (see Table 5). However, if GMO production = technology=20 is adopted for both corn and soybeans, the export prices for corn = and=20 soybeans will decline by 12.6% and 4.4%, respectively, while the = import=20 prices will fall by 12.1% and 4.2%, respectively. These results = indicate=20 that if the GMO production technology is adopted, it may serve to = reduce=20 the pressure on increases in food prices in the future.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

In response to the question: "Do humans need GMOs?", the = results of our=20 simulation indicate that they do. The adoption of GMO production=20 technology in relation to corn and soybeans could increase the = quantity=20 traded and reduce the upward pressure on food prices, although the = major=20 trading countries would stand to benefit the most from adopting a = GMO=20 production technology. There are some limitations to this = research. The=20 first is to assume that all exporting countries fully adopt (i.e. = adopt=20 100%) the GMO production technology, while the importing = countrieNs do not=20 adopt such technology. If the importing countries were also to = adopt the=20 GMO production technology, the scale of the impact would be larger = than=20 that suggested by the above simulation results. The second = restriction=20 relates to the percentage change in the crop yield or the crop = production=20 cost when the GMO production technology is adopted. A 3.2% = increase in the=20 corn yield and a $3.2 per hectare reduction in the production cost = of=20 soybeans may underestimate what would happen in the future if the = GMO=20 production technology were to be promoted. Therefore, the above = simulation=20 results are underestimated. Finally, the external effects of = adopting GMOs=20 are not considered in this study. This will surely become a very = important=20 GMO-related research topic in the near future.

Table 1. Validating Corn Production in an SE Model

Table 2. Validating Soybean Production in an SE Model

Table 3 Economic Impacts of the Full Adoption of GMOs on Corn = Markets=20 in the Current Period

Table 4 Economie Impacts of the Full Adoption of GMOs on = Soybean=20 Markets in the Current Period

Table 5 World Prices by Alternative Scenarios

Figure I. Global Population, Food Production, and Food = Production Per=20 Capita, 1961-1999

Figure 3. The Economic Impacts on Trading Markets of the = Adoption of=20 GMO Production Technology

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